Luck is the great leveler !

The great Charles  Goren taught  bridge lovers  the point / count system of bidding , way back in early nineteen forties. Since then  everyone knows how to evaluate the strength of a given hand and based on the strength, how to take part in the  auction. Validating the strength of the hand is however  a continuous process  during bidding . While bidding you can revalue your hand and sometime discover that in the second round of bidding  either your hand is looking better compared to when you looked at it in the first round of bidding or you discover that the actual strength o the hand has reduced.

When your  right hand side opponent (RHO) shows  a particular suit and if you have  doubleton king of that suit you may  assume  that king  will win you the trick. On the other hand if LHO bids a suit and you have a doubleton king there is  logical reason to feel bad and reduce the strength of your  hand while  re-assessing . One should however remember  that the information gathered from your partner should be considered true and to that extent opponents can be ignored in the process of revaluing the hand. However If partner is quiet; then you have to give importance to opponents’ bids  unless quietness of the partner  has given you some  information as per  pre -determined convention  in addition to his inadequate strength for   opening the  hand !

When one gets singleton king one doesn’t  get excited compared to when he gets singleton Ace for the obvious reasons. Experts  advise that singleton Ace is worth 6  counts and not more than 2 points  be counted for singleton king . If you are a dealer and have bare11 or 12  high card points (HCPs) including a singleton king ,you better  be careful while assessing true hand value. However If your partner as a dealer opens the suit in which you have a singleton king you can definitely feel  better  compared to earlier case .The reason is you may even get chance to discard some other loser on Partner’s Ace. If your RHO bids the suit in which you have a singleton king you still have reasonably  good chance of winning the trick (RHO may try to take finesse )but  if you have a singleton king in the suit which is bided by Left hand side opponent (LHO) your chances of winning the trick are almost nil. The value of the same King thus  changes in  different situations .That is the beauty of the game !

 When you see LHO has Ace and Queen against your  doubleton king ,you will definitely feel that  king is useless but in this  situation even  3 carded  Jack (which otherwise looks not so useful to your  Partner) in your partner’s hand  can become  a  winner .  Doubleton  king  Queen if Ace is on RHO are slightly better for defense  in No-trump hand  but if Ace is with LHO their value reduces. Another example is Ace King doubleton in your hand and you discover  that your partner has  Q J doubleton of the same suit . The combined strength of the partnership here  drops by 3 points. (because Doubleton Q J  or any other doubleton against Doubleton Ace king  can fetch only 2 tricks ) However;  if there is even  the lowest card  of the same suit with you or your partner instead of doubleton in both hands , you can immediately see the possibility  of  an extra  trick .The lowest card in such case becomes very  important .

The  combined strength  and possibility of winning the trick in the hand should  be reassessed as soon as one sees the dummy  and  as  the game  progresses. Many people believe that card luck plays the vital role in winning or losing the contract . It may be true in some cases ..some amount of the luck is required but more than the luck it is the skill of finding the accurate winning line of play. One may love to have comparatively stronger RHO when your hand is stronger  than dummy’s hand and stronger LHO when the dummy’s strength is better .Alas ! this will not be the case every time .Those who expect this situation every now and then are perhaps average players and curse their luck and partners more often.In reality  generally for  a given deal there is only one particular winning line and some  critical cards or some required vital distribution of the cards in the opponents’ hands which   will  decide the fate of the contract . While conducting , you  should  plan against the worst condition and  ask yourself  “can you succeed ?”. If  answer is yes then start playing as per your  plan but If  answer is  no ,then start assuming slightly better situation (relax the worst conditions  one by one )  till you  find  the least dangerous situation in which contract will still  succeed . When you find  such line   you are likely to succeed .

 As a declarer as soon as you see the lead

1         Count the sure winning  tricks

2         Count the sure losing tricks

3  Count the tricks which could be possibly won in favorable conditions

                Example is ,If you have 6 hearts  A,Q ,J,10 - - while playing 4 hearts  contract and dummy has 3 hearts then your sure tricks are 5  but  if  your RHO has heart  K you can get extra trick . Similarly with AKJT -  - - your sure tricks are 6 and if you could  capture  missing Queen  you get  extra 7^th trick.

It is important to count sure winners and  also sure losers  .If sure losers are more than the  maximum losers you can afford ,then nothing can be done  except  cursing your luck .(or cursing your Partner !)If you are sure to score the contract start thinking about overtricks but never attempt  for  an overtrick if it can  take you in the situation where you will be  unable to score  even your sure winning  tricks and lose the contract.  

It is wrong to conclude that if you have failed to win the contract your bidding was wrong . In fact There may be other reasons for losing the contract including  following two important reasons.

1         You could  not find  the accurate winning  line .

2         Your opponents have succeeded in changing your line of play by deceiving you  (by  some critical ducking  or end playing.)

We  observe that many  pairs  are unable to win  the contract in a particular deal while  2-3   pairs  win the contract in the same deal . Please note that  we also observe that most people win the contract while 2-3 pairs loose in the same situation. Such things are  certainly not only because of the luck factor alone . Most of the time either it is  because  accurate winning line is found by 2 or 3 genius players  which others failed  to find  or  2-3 very tough opponents who knew the exact defending line to upset the contract. True it is that some winners  might have got very weak opponents  or  a very favorable lead  which most losers did not get . But sooner or later  such lucky  winners  will be  placed where they should be  by the same “ Luck”  . Someone said  “cards know which game you are playing and how you are playing  it. If you are  unduly  depending on your luck,the  cards will have the last laugh !”   The luck has two important characteristics  … first  “it  favors the braves”  and  the second “Luck is the great leveler !   I have  never come across the pair who won the tourney only because it was lucky.  The  wisdom of  consistently  finding  accurate  winning line (or defending line) decides  the winner . Here the word consistently has tremendous importance .

Readers can continue to depend on their own judgment as below given information doesn’t  guarantee that they will be wiser  nevertheless the information could be of use to them in identifying the worst or most likely distribution in their opponents’ hands. I leave that to their judgmental skill  which I call wisdom !

                                                    --------------- R J PHANSALKAR

                                                                           Feb 13  1976, Bangalore

                                                                           

Probabilities  of distribution of missing cards in opponents’ hands

1	If  6 cards of the suit are with opponents	Chances of their distribution 6-0  ( OR 6-0) Chances of their distribution 5-1 (OR  1-5) Chances of their distribution  4-2( OR 2-4) Chances of their distribution 3-3	1.5% 14.5 % 48.5 % 33.5 %
2	If  5 cards are missing	Chances of their distribution 5-0   (OR 0-5) Chances of their distribution 4-1   ( OR 1-4) Chances of their distribution  3-2  (OR 2-3)	3.9% 28.3% 67.8 %
3	If  4 cards are missing	Chances of their distribution 4-0 (OR 0-4) Chances of their distribution  3-1(OR 1-3) Chances of their distribution  2-2	9.6 % 49.7% 40.7%
4	If 3 cards are missing	Chances of their distribution 3-0  OR 0-3 Chances of their distribution  2-1  OR 1-2	22% 78%
5	If 2 cards are missing	Chances of their distribution 2-0   OR 0-2 Chances of their distribution  1-1	48% 52%